There’s still time to register for Future Horizons’ Spring Industry Update Webinar. Taking place on 5th May 2026 at 3pm (UK BST), the webinar will explore the outlook for 2026, covering AI-driven risks, and key supply and demand trends shaping the semiconductor industry. Register here to find out more: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/1717736719537/WN_c8KlOlIATv-rlwUzZpdPoA
See the April update below:
Executive Summary
Figure E1 below shows the annualised semiconductor growth rate trends for Total ICs, Opto and Discretes.
Figure E1 – Annualised SC Sector Growth Rate Trends
(Jan 1998-Feb 2026 – Percent of US$)
April’s WSTS Report saw February’s total monthly semiconductor sales breach the US$100 billion barrier, up an eyewatering 25.2 percent from January 2026 and 86.1 percent vs. February 2025, Figure E1(a).
This growth, however, was solely attributable to ICs, Figure E1(b) up 96.6 percent year-on-year, more specifically to Memory, up 259.3 percent, and Logic, up 40.4 percent, each in turn driven by the still red-hot AI-datacenter explosion.
In sharp contrast, IC growth excluding Memory was just 28.6 percent, Analog 11.5 percent, and Micro 4.4 percent, with Opto up 14.5 percent and Discretes up just 8.0 percent, Figure E1(c).
IC unit growth was also single digit, at just 9.9 percent, re-enforcing the fact the current stratospheric IC growth is being driven by ASPs, not real market demand. This, plus the fact it is severely AI Datacentre dependent, makes the current recovery untenable longer term. ASPs will drop like a rock when the datacentre boom slows, and the memory market will crash once new capacity comes on stream.
Figure E1(a) – Annualised SC Growth Rate Trends
(Jan 1998-Feb 2026 – Percent of US$)
Figure E1(b) – Annualised IC Growth Rate Trends
(Jan 1998-Feb 2026 – Percent of US$)
Figure E1(c) – Annualised Discrete Growth Rate Trends
(Jan 1998-Feb 2026 – Percent of US$)
In contrast, the Discrete sector is more representative of the overall industry health and, whilst this has been on a general upward trend since the market turned positive in February 2025, it is far from indicative of a booming market recovery.
